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The Great Game: 8 Critical Flashpoints And Strategic Shifts In India And Its Neighboring Countries In 2025

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The geopolitical landscape surrounding India is undergoing its most significant transformation in decades, as of late 2025. The country's ambitious 'Neighborhood First' policy is being tested by shifting domestic politics in key partner nations, the lingering shadow of the China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and a renewed focus on strategic maritime and land connectivity projects. This complex web of diplomacy, development, and defense defines India’s role as the dominant power in South Asia, with recent developments—from major aid packages to diplomatic strains—indicating a high-stakes 'Great Game' for regional influence.

The year 2025 has been marked by a flurry of high-level diplomatic engagements, massive infrastructure project inaugurations, and the stark reality of deteriorating relations with certain key neighbors. Understanding these eight critical relationships is essential to grasp the future trajectory of the Indo-Pacific region and the stability of the entire South Asian subcontinent.

The Eight Neighbors: A Snapshot of India's Geopolitical Frontline (2025)

India shares land or maritime borders with eight nations, each presenting a unique set of challenges and opportunities. The current status of these relationships, updated to late 2025, reveals a region in flux, driven by economic necessity, strategic competition, and historical ties.

  • Pakistan: Strained relations continue, with security cooperation largely limited to operational counterterrorism and border management, lacking high-level political dialogue. The focus remains on managing border insecurity and geopolitical tensions.
  • China: The relationship is defined by intense strategic rivalry and the ongoing military standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). India's regional strategy is heavily focused on countering China's growing influence, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
  • Nepal: Relations show a mix of renewed vigor in trade and energy cooperation, but are simultaneously challenged by political unrest and a noticeable decrease in high-level governmental engagement, as seen in late 2025.
  • Bangladesh: A significant diplomatic strain emerged in 2025, with India-Bangladesh relations deteriorating, notably marked by Dhaka's suspension of certain visa categories. This highlights rising regional tensions despite strong historical ties.
  • Sri Lanka: The 'Neighborhood First' policy was powerfully demonstrated in December 2025 with a pledge of a USD 450 million aid package to support Sri Lanka's economic recovery. External Affairs Minister (EAM) Jaishankar's visit underscored India's role as a first responder and steady partner.
  • Maldives: Ties were revitalized in July 2025, marking 60 years of diplomatic relations. India extended a USD 565 million line of credit for infrastructure projects, a significant move following a period of strain caused by the 2023 "India Out" campaign and Maldivian outreach to China.
  • Bhutan: The strategic partnership deepened significantly in November 2025 with a two-day State Visit by the Indian Prime Minister. Key outcomes included the joint inauguration of the 1020MW Punatsangchhu-II Power plant, symbolizing strong cooperation in hydropower and connectivity.
  • Myanmar: Cooperation is focused on border connectivity and economic corridors, with new cross-border trading initiatives discussed in February 2025. India's strategic projects here are crucial for its 'Act East Policy'.

India's Strategic Pivot: Connectivity and Counter-Containment

India’s regional strategy is not merely reactive; it is a proactive push to establish robust, alternative connectivity networks that enhance its own security and economic interests while offering viable alternatives to China's expansive infrastructure diplomacy. This strategy is primarily executed through major maritime and land-based infrastructure projects.

The Rise of Alternative Corridors: Chabahar and Kaladan

To bypass geopolitical roadblocks, particularly Pakistan, India has doubled down on two massive multi-modal transport projects. These projects are the cornerstone of a strategy to secure access to Central Asia and Southeast Asia, respectively, without relying on immediate neighbors.

  • Chabahar Port (Iran): India's interest in the Chabahar Port, which began in 2002, has intensified. Strategically located near the Strait of Hormuz, it serves as a critical gateway to landlocked Afghanistan and the energy-rich Central Asian republics. It allows India to establish a maritime-land transit corridor, directly challenging the regional monopoly of China's partner, Pakistan.
  • Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (Myanmar): This ambitious project is vital for connecting the eastern ports of India to Myanmar and, crucially, to the isolated North-Eastern states of India. It involves a mix of sea, river, and road transport, creating an alternative route for cargo shipment and strengthening economic ties under the 'Act East Policy'.
  • India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT) Trilateral Highway: A flagship project of the 'Act East Policy', the IMT Trilateral Highway is designed to connect Moreh in India to Mae Sot in Thailand via Myanmar. While facing challenges, its completion would dramatically boost trade and strategic ties with ASEAN nations, cementing India's role as a bridge between South Asia and Southeast Asia.

The Shifting Sands of Regional Cooperation: From SAARC to BIMSTEC

The institutional framework for regional cooperation in South Asia is undergoing a dramatic re-evaluation. The long-stalled South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has been effectively supplanted by a more dynamic, India-centric grouping, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

The Stagnation of SAARC: SAARC, which represents over a quarter of the world's population, continues to struggle to realize its regional vision. The organization remains in limbo, primarily due to the intractable rivalry between India and Pakistan, which has crippled its ability to foster viable regional cooperation on shared challenges like poverty and trade barriers. The lack of consensus and political will has pushed India to look elsewhere for effective regional engagement.

BIMSTEC's New Chapter in 2025: India views BIMSTEC as its strategic gateway to the Indo-Pacific, focusing on the Bay of Bengal region which includes Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. The 6th BIMSTEC Summit, held in Bangkok in April 2025, marked a new chapter with high-level participation, underscoring its growing importance. Furthermore, India hosted the BIMSTEC Aquatics and the BIMSTEC Youth Summit in Ahmedabad in February 2025, demonstrating a concerted effort to operationalize and revitalize the grouping across multiple sectors, including connectivity, trade, and security.

The China Factor: Economic Influence and Debt Diplomacy

No discussion of India's neighborhood is complete without addressing the pervasive influence of the People's Republic of China. China has become a major economic force in South Asia, primarily through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), offering large loans for infrastructure development like roads, ports, and bridges. This "debt diplomacy" has created significant strategic anxiety in New Delhi.

India's strategy is a multi-pronged response. On one hand, it involves direct counter-projects like the Chabahar and Kaladan corridors. On the other, it involves strengthening strategic alliances with nations like the United States, Japan, and Australia through the Quad, which aims to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific. The recent USD 565 million line of credit to the Maldives and the massive aid to Sri Lanka are explicit examples of India using its own economic and development assistance to reassert its regional primacy against the backdrop of Chinese influence. The underlying narrative of 2025 is a clear competition between the Indian and Chinese models of regional engagement.

india and neighboring countries
india and neighboring countries

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